サイド落ち計算機

python3 で動きます。

code:python

from math import comb

deck = {

"Marnie's Impidimp": 3,

"Marnie's Morgrem": 2,

"Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex": 2,

'Munkidori': 4,

'Snorunt': 2,

'Froslass': 2,

'Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex': 1,

'Iron Bundle': 1,

'Maractus': 1,

'Shaymin': 1,

'Secret Box': 1,

'Buddy-Buddy Poffin': 2,

'Nest Ball': 1,

'Ultra Ball': 1,

'Earthen Vessel': 1,

'Rare Candy': 1,

'Night Stretcher': 2,

'Super Rod': 1,

'Counter Catcher': 2,

"Boss's Orders": 2,

"Lillie's Conviction": 4,

"Arven": 4,

'Iono': 2,

"Professor's Research": 2,

'Spikemuth Gym': 2,

'Artazon': 1,

'Technical Machine: Evolution': 2,

'Technical Machine: Devolution': 1,

'Air Balloon': 1,

'D_ENERGY': 8

}

HAND = 7

SIDE = 6

N = sum(deck.values())

print(f"Deck size: {N}")

# たねポケ

seed_cards = [

"Marnie's Impidimp", "Munkidori", "Snorunt",

'Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex', 'Iron Bundle', 'Maractus', 'Shaymin'

]

# 初手に種ポケが1枚以上ある確率

P_E = 1 - comb(N - HIT, HAND) / comb(N, HAND)

print(f"P(E): {P_E}")

def marginal_distribution(card):

dist = []

for k in range(min(n_card, SIDE) + 1):

total_prob = 0

for h in range(min(n_card, HAND) + 1):

if h + k > n_card:

continue

# 手札に h 枚引く枚数組み合わせ数

ways_hand_card = comb(n_card, h)

# 残り山札から残り手札を埋める組み合わせ数

remaining_hand = HAND - h

remaining_deck = N - n_card

ways_hand_other = comb(remaining_deck, remaining_hand)

# 初手に種ポケがゼロの場合の組み合わせ数

# ただし残りの手札位枚数が山札から種ポケモンと対象カード枚数-手札に引いた h 枚数を引いた枚数以下のときは 0 になる

# ただし対象カードが種ポケで h != 0 の場合は除外する

remaining_n_cards = n_card - h

miss = comb(N - HIT - remaining_n_cards, remaining_hand) if (remaining_hand <= N - HIT - remaining_n_cards) and not(card in seed_cards and h != 0) else 0

# サイドに k 枚落ちる組み合わせ数

ways_side = comb(n_card - h, k) * comb(remaining_deck - remaining_hand, SIDE - k)

total_prob += ways_hand_card * (ways_hand_other - miss) * ways_side

dist.append(total_prob)

total = sum(dist)

if total == 0:

# 結果出力

for card in deck:

print(f"{card}: {marginal_distribution(card)}")

出力例

P(E) は手札に種ポケモンが1枚以上含まれている確率で、このサイド落ち計算は条件付き確率として実装したつもり

code:output

Deck size: 60

P(E): 0.8371559499762459

シュッとパースして↓

table:Name

Name\枚数 0枚 1枚 2枚 3枚 4枚 5枚 6枚

Marnie's Impidimp 72.84% 24.80% 2.30% 0.06%

Marnie's Morgrem 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Munkidori 65.21% 30.27% 4.30% 0.21% 0.00%

Snorunt 81.17% 18.02% 0.82%

Froslass 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex 90.21% 9.79%

Iron Bundle 90.21% 9.79%

Maractus 90.21% 9.79%

Shaymin 90.21% 9.79%

Secret Box 89.89% 10.11%

Buddy-Buddy Poffin 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Nest Ball 89.89% 10.11%

Ultra Ball 89.89% 10.11%

Earthen Vessel 89.89% 10.11%

Rare Candy 89.89% 10.11%

Night Stretcher 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Super Rod 89.89% 10.11%

Counter Catcher 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Boss's Orders 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Lillie's Conviction 64.50% 30.77% 4.50% 0.23% 0.00%

Arven 64.50% 30.77% 4.50% 0.23% 0.00%

Iono 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Professor's Research 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Spikemuth Gym 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Artazon 89.89% 10.11%

Technical Machine: Evolution 80.64% 18.50% 0.87%

Technical Machine: Devolution 89.89% 10.11%

Air Balloon 89.89% 10.11%

D_ENERGY 40.18% 41.66% 15.41% 2.55% 0.19% 0.01% 0.00%