Futarchy
Vitalik Buterin(2014)
2025
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2025-04-07
GPT-4.5.iconFutarchy is a new form of governance proposed to solve the problems of democracy. In this democracy, "values (what to aim for)" are decided by voting, but "policies (how to realize them)" are determined by "betting" in the prediction market.
Whether a consensus has been reached on the pronunciation is tenuous.nishio.icon
Specifically, elected representatives define how to measure "national welfare," and the policy is implemented only if the prediction market clearly indicates that the level of welfare will improve after the policy is implemented.
This system is based on the following three assumptions
1. democratic failures occur because of insufficient information aggregation.
2. it is not difficult to distinguish between rich and poor countries ex post.
3. forecasting markets are the most effective aggregators of information.
Futarchy is not yet practiced, but it is ideologically neutral, and a wide range of policies, from socialism to liberalism, are said to be feasible depending on the values of the people.
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